金吾财讯 | 煤炭多数回调，南南资源(01229)跌4.76%，蒙古能源(00276)跌3.03%，兖矿能源(01171)跌1.71%，南戈壁(01878)跌1.56%，中国神华(01088)跌0.88%。国泰君安表示，展望2025年，“稳态”依然是煤炭行业的关键词，煤价有底无惧边际供需略走弱。该行判断在中性的政策预期假设下，煤炭的纸面边际供需较2024年略走弱：供给的核心增量来源于山西增产（约同比增加7000万吨），但判断实际销量的冲击会弱于产量数据；需求端，电煤的需求在水电和新能源贡献边际走弱背景下，依然可能保持2.5-3%的较好增长，非电煤不考虑政策影响，钢铁水泥需求可能继续下降，但下行有底，边际拖累减弱，化工依然保持较好增长。判断2025年煤炭供大于求在1.2%左右，略大于2024年的0.9%，煤价中枢可能略有下行，800元/吨的煤价底部清晰，确定性依然较强。
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