【氧化铝期货价格受资金影响剧烈波动，单边谨慎操作】金十期货特约新湖期货点评：本周氧化铝期货价格冲高回落，周五盘面跳水，远月合约普遍下跌超5%，近月合约跌幅也在4%左右。1. 盘面跳水主要受澳大利亚最新一笔成交价格大幅下跌消息的冲击。据称12月5日，澳大利亚东部氧化铝以FOB750美元/吨的价格成交5-5.5万吨，12月底至明年1月船期，此笔海外氧化铝成交较上一笔成交下跌约50美金/吨，这一改数月以来海外现货成交持续上涨的趋势，使得宽松预期提前，对多头资金造成较大冲击。不过海外实际供需变化不能仅凭单笔成交情况判断。该笔成交价格虽有所下调，但仍处于高位，后续仍待观察。2. 虽然近期海外无新产能投放，不过11月末俄铝减产对海外供应紧张有一定缓解作用。近期国内也无新产能投放，运行产能变化不大，检修、环保限产对产量有扰动，产量无明显增加。因下游电解铝运行产能总体平稳，实际消费也无显著增减。不过总体库存降至低位且尚未企稳，西北地区部分电解铝厂氧化铝库存天数不到一周，春节前有备库刚需。海外价格下跌后，净出口量或有所回落，对缓解国内短缺有一定作用，但当前供应缺口仍难补齐。国内现货价格涨势或放缓，但拐点仍需等待。期货价格受资金影响剧烈波动，单边谨慎操作。
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