智通财经APP获悉,近日,东亚银行(00023)发表经济市场展望,预计明年上半年恒生指数的目标水平为22500点,相当于市盈率10倍,预计观望美联储持续减息,对港股有一定支持。香港楼价及GDP方面,该行预计明年分别回升5%;增长2.5%。楼价料受利率回落;政府放宽需求管理措施;抢人才等政策见效所推动。
该行亦认为,美联储货币政策立场转趋中性,料本月减息0.25%,明年每季均减0.25%,即明年全年共减1%,基准利率回至3.25%至3.5%;香港银行料于本月及明年初跟随美国减息,最优惠利率(P)下调至5.25%。另明年上半年标普500指数的目标水平为6100至6200点,市盈率徘徊在22至23倍,与过去2至3年平均数据相若。
此外,该行建议关注本地高收益企业,如香港银行、公用事业、电讯、地产;中国内地价值和高收益国企,如内地电讯、银行、保险、电力和天然气;中国内地消费政策受惠行业,如互联网、食品饮料、家电、汽车,共三大板块。
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