金吾财讯 | 第一上海发研指，国药控股(01099)2024年前三季度累计实现收入4424.2亿元，同比减少0.78%。前三季度公司整体毛利率同比下降0.68pts至7.55%。前三季度归母净利润52.79亿元，同比减少13.41%。公司Q3收入同比恢复增长1.88%，但主要是由于2023Q3医疗反腐导致的低基数，环比增速仅0.16%。归母净利润15.75亿元，同比减少20.94%，主要由于整体毛利率下降以及应收账款相关信用减值损失，以及23H1子公司收到大额拆迁补偿款所致。该行指，在医药零售业务方面，受到医保个账规模缩减影响及行业竞争加剧，社会化药房收入同比下降，上半年公司零售业务收入同比减少6.43%至166亿元，其中国大药房Q2净亏损0.91亿元。通过关闭亏损门店等多项措施，Q3国大药房亏损缩窄至0.25亿元。期待在有效举措下，零售业务能够在Q4持续改善。该行表示，随着中国老龄化进程的加速，公司药品分销业务仍将稳健发展。而设备更新政策及公司多举措的推动下，器械分销及医药零售业务也有望持续恢复。采用DCF为公司估值，分别取折现率15%，永续增长率0%，计算出公司目标价26.82港元，有28.0%的上涨空间，维持买入评级。
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