【三菱日联：非农出现上行意外的门槛较高】金十数据12月6日讯，最近几天的美国数据流并没有帮助提振美元，ISM服务业调查显示，在11月美国大选后，商业信心的下降幅度大于预期，而ADP就业报告和最新的初请失业金人数仍表明，劳动力市场正在走软。市场普遍预期非农就业人数增长20万，因此出现上行意外的门槛较高。除非今天有显著的上行意外，否则我们预计美联储本月将降息25个基点。如果就业增长的反弹比预期更强劲，可能会触发美元新的上升势头，帮助提振投资者的乐观情绪，即在特朗普赢得美国大选和“红潮”之后，美国经济可能会走强。相反，如果就业增长的反弹弱于预期，这可能引发美元更深层的回调，尽管我们仍然预计美元将在明年上半年特朗普第二任期开始时进一步走强。
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