By Carmel Crimmins

Dec 5 (Reuters) - So Emmanuel Macron is looking for a new prime minister. The French president needs to find someone who can pass a 2025 budget but any new leader is going to encounter the same problem faced by Michel Barnier – how to get it through a deeply divided parliament.

This is not just a problem for France. As my colleague, Gavin Maguire, notes in his column today, the collapse of the French government could re-ignite Europe’s energy crisis.

The relatively low cost of French nuclear generation means the country is by far the region’s biggest electricity supplier, providing Germany and Italy, in particular, with cheap power. But the state-owned utility that runs France’s nuclear power sector, EDF, needs regular investment.

Any forced cuts to France's power generation tied to budget tussles could quickly curtail electricity exports and drive up prices in a region still dealing with the loss of Russian gas supplies since the outbreak of war.

And as if things couldn’t get worse for Macron, it looks like the European Union and Latin America’s Mercosur bloc are close to clinching a major, long-delayed trade deal despite French opposition.

Brussels wants to open up new markets for its carmakers and other companies as they struggle with cheap Chinese competition and the threat of tariffs from U.S. President-elect Donald Trump.

But France is worried about the impact of cheap agricultural imports from Mercosur members including Brazil and Argentina. If a deal is inked, French farmers won’t be happy.

Speaking of Chinese competition, automakers in China are pivoting to exports of hybrid vehicles to get around EU tariffs. The bloc’s latest EV tariffs do not apply to hybrid cars and from July to October, Chinese hybrid exports to Europe more than tripled from a year ago.

China’s dominance of the EV sector, and in particular EV batteries, is the topic of this week’s Reuters Econ World podcast. I talk to Greater China Bureau Chief Kevin Krolicki and Sweden correspondent Marie Mannes about what it all means for the West. Plus, we take a trip to the snowy northern reaches of Sweden to hear why Northvolt, Europe’s would-be battery champion, filed for bankruptcy. Listen here.

With both France and Germany on political rollercoasters and the growth outlook faltering, investors expect the ECB to cut interest rates at every one of its upcoming meetings at least through next June.

For the United States, an ongoing mix of hot-and-cold data is keeping Fed officials on guard and reluctant to offer much by way of forward guidance. Traders are pricing in a 74% chance of a 25-basis-point cut at the Fed's Dec. 17-18 meeting, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool.

The Fed, Europe's challenges and of course, the next Trump presidency, will all be topics of conversation at next week's ReutersNEXT conference in New York.

There'll be some big names in attendance including the CEOs of Goldman Sachs, Lazard and Ferrari and Spain's Foreign Minister.

I'll be interviewing Sweden's Finance Minister Elisabeth Svantesson and Rob Goldstein, BlackRock's Chief Operating Officer, on stage.

To see all the news from the event on Dec. 10-11, bookmark the event’s news page.

The headlines

Prime Minister Barnier to resign as France's political crisis deepens

New York police hunt for man who killed UnitedHealth executive

Bitcoin storms above $100,000 as bets on Trump fuel crypto euphoria

OPEC+ will delay oil output hike at meeting, source says

The chart

Germany's Bundesbank has said that a "significant number" of corporate insolvencies are likely next year. Economic weakness and still-high interest rates are causing businesses problems.

The podcast

“What's really interesting when you visit the biggest battery producer on the planet is how few people there are ... it is a giant machine that is making the machine now.”

Kevin Krolicki, Reuters Greater China Bureau Chief, on the latest episode of Reuters Econ World.

The real world

• North Darfur: An elaborate global system exists to prevent famine. It’s failing.

• Kyiv: Ukraine's teenage boys fear a dark dilemma: Fight or run

• Seoul: From decree to defeat: Inside South Korea's failed martial law attempt

The week ahead

• Dec 6: Nonfarm payrolls

• Dec 10-11: Reuters NEXT

• Dec 11: U.S. inflation

• Dec 12: ECB meeting

(Editing by Catherine Evans)