金吾财讯 | 山西证券发研指，裕元集团(00551)为全球最具规模的品牌运动鞋和休闲鞋制造商，凭借整合产业链上游鞋材原材料环节、领先的产品研发能力，保持行业鞋履出货量第一。根据该行估算，公司在耐克和阿迪达斯的鞋履采购份额分别为 11%、14%，为两大品牌的核心供应商。且客户集中度处于行业适中水平，对单一客户依赖有限。2024 年行业订单恢复，预计全年鞋履出货量有望达到 2.5 亿双，同比增长中双位数以上，员工人数自2023年末触底后，连续三个季度回升，鞋履出货量有望伴随订单需求旺盛、新产能投产，实现双位数稳健增长。伴随不断精进生产技术、优化生产效能，对比友商，公司利润率有进一步提升空间。该行表示，预计公司2024-2026 年营业收入为81.29、88.15、95.64 亿美元，同比增长 3.0%/8.4%/8.5%；归母净利润为4.50、5.17、5.75 亿美元，同比增长 63.6%/14.8%/11.2%。参考港股运动服饰制造商龙头申洲国际、运动用品零售商滔搏，分别给予公司制造业务12 倍估值，零售业务7 倍估值，合理市值为 418 亿港元，较 12 月3 日相比，具备48%的上涨空间。公司同时布局运动鞋履产业链上游制造、下游零售环节，看好公司制造业务新产能持续扩张、订单恢复稳健增长、利润率进一步修复，期待公司零售业务在线下客流回暖后，利润率弹性。首次覆盖，给予“买入-B”评级。
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