Earnings Miss: VersaBank Missed EPS By 11% And Analysts Are Revising Their Forecasts

Simply Wall St.
12 Dec 2024

VersaBank (TSE:VBNK) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 7.2% to CA$23.16 in the week after its latest yearly results. Revenues were in line with forecasts, at CA$112m, although statutory earnings per share came in 11% below what the analysts expected, at CA$1.49 per share. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

View our latest analysis for VersaBank

TSX:VBNK Earnings and Revenue Growth December 12th 2024

Following the latest results, VersaBank's three analysts are now forecasting revenues of CA$139.4m in 2025. This would be a major 25% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to jump 51% to CA$2.25. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of CA$141.9m and earnings per share (EPS) of CA$2.37 in 2025. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the minor downgrade to their earnings per share numbers for next year.

Althoughthe analysts have revised their earnings forecasts for next year, they've also lifted the consensus price target 10% to CA$28.89, suggesting the revised estimates are not indicative of a weaker long-term future for the business. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. Currently, the most bullish analyst values VersaBank at CA$31.16 per share, while the most bearish prices it at CA$27.50. This is a very narrow spread of estimates, implying either that VersaBank is an easy company to value, or - more likely - the analysts are relying heavily on some key assumptions.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. It's clear from the latest estimates that VersaBank's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 25% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 19% p.a. over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 9.2% annually. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect VersaBank to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. We note an upgrade to the price target, suggesting that the analysts believes the intrinsic value of the business is likely to improve over time.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for VersaBank going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 1 warning sign for VersaBank that you need to be mindful of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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