Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, 'The possibility of permanent loss is the risk I worry about... and every practical investor I know worries about.' It's only natural to consider a company's balance sheet when you examine how risky it is, since debt is often involved when a business collapses. We note that AIC Mines Limited (ASX:A1M) does have debt on its balance sheet. But the real question is whether this debt is making the company risky.
Debt assists a business until the business has trouble paying it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. In the worst case scenario, a company can go bankrupt if it cannot pay its creditors. However, a more common (but still painful) scenario is that it has to raise new equity capital at a low price, thus permanently diluting shareholders. Of course, the upside of debt is that it often represents cheap capital, especially when it replaces dilution in a company with the ability to reinvest at high rates of return. The first step when considering a company's debt levels is to consider its cash and debt together.
Check out our latest analysis for AIC Mines
As you can see below, at the end of June 2024, AIC Mines had AU$6.84m of debt, up from AU$2.44m a year ago. Click the image for more detail. But on the other hand it also has AU$87.6m in cash, leading to a AU$80.8m net cash position.
According to the last reported balance sheet, AIC Mines had liabilities of AU$23.4m due within 12 months, and liabilities of AU$24.3m due beyond 12 months. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of AU$87.6m as well as receivables valued at AU$1.12m due within 12 months. So it actually has AU$41.1m more liquid assets than total liabilities.
This excess liquidity suggests that AIC Mines is taking a careful approach to debt. Given it has easily adequate short term liquidity, we don't think it will have any issues with its lenders. Succinctly put, AIC Mines boasts net cash, so it's fair to say it does not have a heavy debt load!
Although AIC Mines made a loss at the EBIT level, last year, it was also good to see that it generated AU$12m in EBIT over the last twelve months. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine AIC Mines's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.
Finally, a business needs free cash flow to pay off debt; accounting profits just don't cut it. AIC Mines may have net cash on the balance sheet, but it is still interesting to look at how well the business converts its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) to free cash flow, because that will influence both its need for, and its capacity to manage debt. Over the last year, AIC Mines saw substantial negative free cash flow, in total. While investors are no doubt expecting a reversal of that situation in due course, it clearly does mean its use of debt is more risky.
While we empathize with investors who find debt concerning, you should keep in mind that AIC Mines has net cash of AU$80.8m, as well as more liquid assets than liabilities. So we are not troubled with AIC Mines's debt use. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. Be aware that AIC Mines is showing 1 warning sign in our investment analysis , you should know about...
If, after all that, you're more interested in a fast growing company with a rock-solid balance sheet, then check out our list of net cash growth stocks without delay.
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