Here's Why We're Wary Of Buying UGI's (NYSE:UGI) For Its Upcoming Dividend

Simply Wall St.
12 Dec 2024

Some investors rely on dividends for growing their wealth, and if you're one of those dividend sleuths, you might be intrigued to know that UGI Corporation (NYSE:UGI) is about to go ex-dividend in just three days. The ex-dividend date occurs one day before the record date which is the day on which shareholders need to be on the company's books in order to receive a dividend. The ex-dividend date is important because any transaction on a stock needs to have been settled before the record date in order to be eligible for a dividend. This means that investors who purchase UGI's shares on or after the 16th of December will not receive the dividend, which will be paid on the 1st of January.

The company's next dividend payment will be US$0.375 per share, and in the last 12 months, the company paid a total of US$1.50 per share. Last year's total dividend payments show that UGI has a trailing yield of 5.2% on the current share price of US$28.64. We love seeing companies pay a dividend, but it's also important to be sure that laying the golden eggs isn't going to kill our golden goose! As a result, readers should always check whether UGI has been able to grow its dividends, or if the dividend might be cut.

Check out our latest analysis for UGI

If a company pays out more in dividends than it earned, then the dividend might become unsustainable - hardly an ideal situation. UGI distributed an unsustainably high 118% of its profit as dividends to shareholders last year. Without more sustainable payment behaviour, the dividend looks precarious. Yet cash flow is typically more important than profit for assessing dividend sustainability, so we should always check if the company generated enough cash to afford its dividend. Over the last year, it paid out more than three-quarters (82%) of its free cash flow generated, which is fairly high and may be starting to limit reinvestment in the business.

It's disappointing to see that the dividend was not covered by profits, but cash is more important from a dividend sustainability perspective, and UGI fortunately did generate enough cash to fund its dividend. Still, if the company repeatedly paid a dividend greater than its profits, we'd be concerned. Extraordinarily few companies are capable of persistently paying a dividend that is greater than their profits.

Click here to see the company's payout ratio, plus analyst estimates of its future dividends.

NYSE:UGI Historic Dividend December 12th 2024

Have Earnings And Dividends Been Growing?

When earnings decline, dividend companies become much harder to analyse and own safely. If earnings fall far enough, the company could be forced to cut its dividend. So we're not too excited that UGI's earnings are down 2.7% a year over the past five years.

Many investors will assess a company's dividend performance by evaluating how much the dividend payments have changed over time. UGI has delivered 7.1% dividend growth per year on average over the past 10 years. That's intriguing, but the combination of growing dividends despite declining earnings can typically only be achieved by paying out a larger percentage of profits. UGI is already paying out a high percentage of its income, so without earnings growth, we're doubtful of whether this dividend will grow much in the future.

The Bottom Line

Should investors buy UGI for the upcoming dividend? Earnings per share have been shrinking in recent times. Additionally, UGI is paying out quite a high percentage of its earnings, and more than half its cash flow, so it's hard to evaluate whether the company is reinvesting enough in its business to improve its situation. Bottom line: UGI has some unfortunate characteristics that we think could lead to sub-optimal outcomes for dividend investors.

So if you're still interested in UGI despite it's poor dividend qualities, you should be well informed on some of the risks facing this stock. To that end, you should learn about the 3 warning signs we've spotted with UGI (including 1 which makes us a bit uncomfortable).

Generally, we wouldn't recommend just buying the first dividend stock you see. Here's a curated list of interesting stocks that are strong dividend payers.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

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