【预计短期集运欧线维持高位震荡】金十期货12月9日讯,周一早盘,集运欧线期货主力合约高开震荡。1. 12月传统航运小旺季今年货量不及预期,欧线运输需求乏力令船商不得不降价揽货,限制挺价幅度。周五盘后上海航交所公布的上海港出口至欧洲基本港市场运价为3030美元/TEU,较上期微跌0.3%,订舱运价小幅回落或令盘面承压,圣诞假期临近,预计本月下旬运力将有所减少。2. 马士基给客户发函称自12月30日起提涨运价至3900美元/TEU和6000美元/FEU,至2025年2月28日,20GP与40GP较当前报价涨幅分别为40%和20%,表明船商挺价意愿依旧强烈,对市场情绪形成提振。3. 年底处于长协新约签订的关键阶段,船商与托运人谈判博弈加剧,市场交易驱动为基本面的弱现实与运价宣涨的强预期,预计短期维持高位震荡,策略上继续关注EC2412合约基差收敛操作机会,按照即期运价估算,对应折合标的指数近3300点附近。
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