China's Reflation Process Likely Be Prolonged After Years of Debt Boom -- Market Talk

Dow Jones

Dec 11, 2024

0816 GMT - China's reflation process will likely be prolonged and interest rates could head lower for longer after years of a debt boom, Goldman Sachs analysts say in a research note. The GS analysts say growth typically decelerates toward the end of large-country debt booms due to weak demand. Meanwhile, the large debt overhang and a deceleration in growth put pressure on central banks to lower rates to facilitate debt repayment and support economic activity, they say. China's debt level rose significantly in the 2010s due to accumulation by real estate developers, local governments and households, GS says. Although Beijing has strived to keep leverage stable since 2016, it has risen again over the past two years, with GS expecting China's nonfinancial debt-to-GDP ratio to reach 307% by end 2024. (sherry.qin@wsj.com)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

December 11, 2024 03:16 ET (08:16 GMT)

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The GS analysts say growth typically decelerates toward the end of large-country debt booms due to weak demand. Meanwhile, the large debt overhang and a deceleration in growth put pressure on central banks to lower rates to facilitate debt repayment and support economic activity, they say. China's debt level rose significantly in the 2010s due to accumulation by real estate developers, local governments and households, GS says. Although Beijing has strived to keep leverage stable since 2016, it has risen again over the past two years, with GS expecting China's nonfinancial debt-to-GDP ratio to reach 307% by end 2024. (sherry.qin@wsj.com) \n</p>\n<pre>\n \n</pre>\n<p>\n  (END) Dow Jones Newswires\n</p>\n<p>\n  December 11, 2024 03:16 ET (08:16 GMT)\n</p>\n<p>\n  Copyright (c) 2024 Dow Jones &amp; Company, Inc.\n</p>\n</font>","source":null,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>China's Reflation Process Likely Be Prolonged After Years of Debt Boom -- Market Talk</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nChina's Reflation Process Likely Be Prolonged After Years of Debt Boom -- Market Talk\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2024-12-11 16:16</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<font class=\"NormalMinus1\" face=\"Arial\">\n<p>\n     0816 GMT - China's reflation process will likely be prolonged and interest rates could head lower for longer after years of a debt boom, Goldman Sachs analysts say in a research note. The GS analysts say growth typically decelerates toward the end of large-country debt booms due to weak demand. Meanwhile, the large debt overhang and a deceleration in growth put pressure on central banks to lower rates to facilitate debt repayment and support economic activity, they say. China's debt level rose significantly in the 2010s due to accumulation by real estate developers, local governments and households, GS says. Although Beijing has strived to keep leverage stable since 2016, it has risen again over the past two years, with GS expecting China's nonfinancial debt-to-GDP ratio to reach 307% by end 2024. (sherry.qin@wsj.com) \n</p>\n<pre>\n \n</pre>\n<p>\n  (END) Dow Jones Newswires\n</p>\n<p>\n  December 11, 2024 03:16 ET (08:16 GMT)\n</p>\n<p>\n  Copyright (c) 2024 Dow Jones &amp; Company, Inc.\n</p>\n</font>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"IE0034235188.USD","symbol_name":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL FOCUS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://dowjonesnews.com/newdjn/logon.aspx?AL=N","article_id":"2490805978","we_media_id":"106","thumbnails":[],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2490805978","pubTimestamp":1733904960,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":null,"weMediaInfo":{"media_name":"Dow Jones","introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":0,"id":"106","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"summary":"0816 GMT - China's reflation process will likely be prolonged and interest rates could head lower for longer after years of a debt boom, Goldman Sachs analysts say in a research note. The GS analysts say growth typically decelerates toward the end of large-country debt booms due to weak demand. Meanwhile, the large debt overhang and a deceleration in growth put pressure on central banks to lower rates to facilitate debt repayment and support economic activity, they say. China's debt level rose significantly in the 2010s due to accumulation by real estate developers, local governments and households, GS says. Although Beijing has strived to keep leverage stable since 2016, it has risen again over the past two years, with GS expecting China's nonfinancial debt-to-GDP ratio to reach 307% by end 2024. 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The GS analysts say growth typically decelerates toward the end of large-country debt booms due to weak demand. Meanwhile, the large debt overhang and a deceleration in growth put pressure on central banks to lower rates to facilitate debt repayment and support economic activity, they say. China's debt level rose significantly in the 2010s due to accumulation by real estate developers, local governments and households, GS says. Although Beijing has strived to keep leverage stable since 2016, it has risen again over the past two years, with GS expecting China's nonfinancial debt-to-GDP ratio to reach 307% by end 2024. (sherry.qin@wsj.com) \n\n\n \n\n\n  (END) Dow Jones Newswires\n\n\n  December 11, 2024 03:16 ET (08:16 GMT)\n\n\n  Copyright (c) 2024 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":true,"code":"91000000","status":"200"}}}