招银国际发表报告指，今年各类消费趋势在新周期下进一步显现。零售业态呈现出金字塔结构高端化放缓、企业内部深度调整及经营杠杆降低等多重考验。然而，厂商端的激烈竞争反而加速了新兴消费趋势的显现，推动市场格局快速调整，优胜劣汰进程加快，帮助行业更精准地捕捉消费者实际需求并走出低谷。大量企业在年内坚定推进改革，以更适应新的高质量发展阶段。
该行指，明年情绪价值类消费将继续引领市场。食品饮料行业中，高品质、好口碑的大健康类产品有望继续领跑。随着产品升级步伐放缓，行业将再度聚焦消费者实际需求。啤酒方面，企业计划扩充中端
价格带产品，以满足更广泛的大众需求。吨价较低的华润啤酒(00291.HK) 借助喜力铺货率的提升，有望延续ASP的增长。水饮方面，农夫山泉(09633.HK) 作为龙头，将重新定位包装水产品线，缓解利润率侵蚀，并通过旗下无糖茶饮迎合大健康的消费趋势，保持高速增长。零食方面，卫龙(09985.HK) 凭借持续的产品创新和升级，在社会压力增大的背景下，预计将在明年实现销量的显著增长，成为低成本的心理安慰和情感价值提供者。
该行续推荐盈利确定性较高的公司。在美妆护肤品消费中，我们维持对珀莱雅(603605.SH) “买入”评级；在食品饮料行业中，维持华润啤酒“买入”评级。
(ha/u)(港股报价延迟最少十五分钟。沽空资料截至 2024-12-11 16:25。) (A股报价延迟最少十五分钟。)
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