中银国际发表研报指，参考成熟经济体，估算中国每年新屋开发的可持续规模为约5亿平方米。该行认为，在过去三年多的楼市快速下跌，行业经历短期痛苦之后，中国新屋开工量正接近可持续发展的水平，目前预测2024年住宅建筑面积新开工量将达到5.36亿平方米，同时预计至2028年住宅销售面积将维持在7.8亿至8.1亿平方米，反映市场去库存仍在进行当中。
该行认为，在短期内中央出台强而有力的支持政策，显著提振市场气氛，然而估计低线城市的回升可能未能持续太长时间，认为要实现全国范围的复苏，市场仍需要进一步推进去库存措施的落地，比如由政府购买商品房，用作保障性存房，因此对内地房地产行业维持“中性”评级，较看好财务稳健、增长前景更强且估值便宜的开发商，首选中国海外(00688.HK) 及保利物业服务(06049.HK) 。(gc/a)(港股报价延迟最少十五分钟。沽空资料截至 2024-12-06 16:25。)
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