根据Wind数据,全周生猪均价16.2元/公斤,环比-1.8%。涌益数据显示上周15kg仔猪价格为494元/头,环比-3.9%;50kg二元母猪价格为1625元/头,环比持平。上周生猪出栏体重为126.73kg/头,环比+0.27kg/头。
与此同时,上周肥标价差小幅上升,200kg与标猪价差为1.66元/kg,环比+0.02元/kg,175kg与标猪价差为1.12元/kg,环比+0.14元/kg。
生猪养殖:灌肠腌腊需求形成价格支撑。
近日北方灌肠南方腌腊需求大幅增量,刺激猪肉消费,对价格起到一定的支撑作用。
临近冬至,需求端已进入旺季,后续价格或将持续震荡。
海通研究发表研报称,根据中央气象台,11月23日至27日,我国将迎来大范围的降温,随着企稳的下降,生猪消费需求也有望抬升,并且将直接刺激腌腊需求的抬升,根据涌益数据,上周已有部分南方区域开启腌腊。该团队认为,随着气温下降,猪价短期内有望迎来一轮反弹。同时从长期来看,此前几年的全行业扩张或已经结束,行业进入发展新阶段,具有养殖成本优势的企业有望享受更多红利。建议短期关注需求变化以及冬季疫病影响。
国内生猪养殖相关企业:
境外生猪养殖企业:万洲国际(00288)
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