金吾财讯 | 招银国际表示，瑞幸咖啡(LKNCY)是中国最大且增长最快的咖啡品牌。竞争优势在于其规模效应，实现了采购、生产和物流的成本效率。与星巴克和库迪相比，瑞幸提供了更高的性价比（优质咖啡豆和获奖配方等等）。持续的供应链投资和优化（如昆山烘焙设施）进一步降低了每杯成本（从人民币5.3元降至人民币4.8元）并提高了毛利率。该行预计23财年到26财年瑞幸咖啡的销售/净利润复合年增长率分别为29%/23%。主要增长来源包括：1）快速扩展门店，2）通过原材料采购和供应链投资降低成本，3）单店销售/同店增长恢复稳定及运营杠杆（客单价和消费频率的提升），4）规模经济效应（总部和其他管理费用相对固定）等等。首次覆盖瑞幸咖啡给予“买入”评级，目标价33.80美元。该行基于20倍25财年预测市盈率为瑞幸咖啡估值，较大中华区餐饮同业平均22.0倍折让9%（对比中位数17.3倍有15%溢价）。尽管成立历史较短，但由于其增长潜力大、规模庞大，在成本、品牌和数字化水平上的领先地位以及相对高成瘾性和功能性的刚需产品特性，该行认为该溢价是合理的。当前股价仅相当于14倍25财年预测市盈率，对比29%/23%的销售/净利润复合年增长率，仍然相当具吸引力。
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