摩根士丹利发表报告，预计明年上半年本港楼价再跌5%，并于下半年转正值，全年楼价持平(此前预测为跌5%)。而写字楼及零售租金料再跌5%。虽然有估值支持，但该行认为地产股表现持续欠佳，普遍下调对地产及收租股目标价，关注股息的可持续性，并新增两只“沽售”评级的股票，下调九龙仓置业(01997.HK) 评级由“增持”降至“减持”，目标价由28元降至20元﹐降希慎(00014.HK) 评级由“与大市同步”降至“减持”，将目标价由14元降至13元，认为两家公司的股息均有下调风险，而续租续租表现转为负面其他地产股的目标价详见另表。
大摩认为，疲弱的消费者情绪以及较长期的高利率可能意味着楼价在明年上半年持续下跌。市场出清如地产商蚀本卖楼可能标志着明年上半年的楼价低位。唯有如此，正面因素例如提高按揭成数、取消超额印花税、降低按揭利率、提高租金及人口流入才会有助于楼价于下半年上扬。
大摩偏好股息率高且有能力维持股息率的公司，如新地(00016.HK) 、信和置业(0083.HK)及领展(00823.HK) 。另外，在长期利率较高的环境下，维持新世界发展(00017.HK) “沽售”评级，由于债务水平较高，故较不受青睐。(ha/w)(港股报价延迟最少十五分钟。沽空资料截至 2024-12-12 16:25。)
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