EMCOR Group's (NYSE:EME) five-year total shareholder returns outpace the underlying earnings growth

Simply Wall St.
13 Dec 2024

We think all investors should try to buy and hold high quality multi-year winners. And we've seen some truly amazing gains over the years. To wit, the EMCOR Group, Inc. (NYSE:EME) share price has soared 450% over five years. And this is just one example of the epic gains achieved by some long term investors. It's also good to see the share price up 21% over the last quarter. But this move may well have been assisted by the reasonably buoyant market (up 9.0% in 90 days).

While the stock has fallen 6.5% this week, it's worth focusing on the longer term and seeing if the stocks historical returns have been driven by the underlying fundamentals.

Check out our latest analysis for EMCOR Group

There is no denying that markets are sometimes efficient, but prices do not always reflect underlying business performance. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).

During five years of share price growth, EMCOR Group achieved compound earnings per share (EPS) growth of 29% per year. This EPS growth is slower than the share price growth of 41% per year, over the same period. So it's fair to assume the market has a higher opinion of the business than it did five years ago. That's not necessarily surprising considering the five-year track record of earnings growth.

The image below shows how EPS has tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).

NYSE:EME Earnings Per Share Growth December 13th 2024

We know that EMCOR Group has improved its bottom line over the last three years, but what does the future have in store? If you are thinking of buying or selling EMCOR Group stock, you should check out this FREE detailed report on its balance sheet.

What About Dividends?

It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. We note that for EMCOR Group the TSR over the last 5 years was 461%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!

A Different Perspective

It's nice to see that EMCOR Group shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 120% over the last year. And that does include the dividend. Since the one-year TSR is better than the five-year TSR (the latter coming in at 41% per year), it would seem that the stock's performance has improved in recent times. In the best case scenario, this may hint at some real business momentum, implying that now could be a great time to delve deeper. Most investors take the time to check the data on insider transactions. You can click here to see if insiders have been buying or selling.

But note: EMCOR Group may not be the best stock to buy. So take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with past earnings growth (and further growth forecast).

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

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