摩根士丹利发表研究报告指，首十个月全国房地产销售量按年下跌15.8%，销售额下跌20.9%，相信第四季跌幅将大幅收窄至按年下跌3.5%及3%，展望内地楼市将于明年触底，房地产行业可能仍充满挑战，但在财政政策支持下一线城市表现可能较强，带动全国跌幅趋向温和。
该行预测明年全国一手房销售量或下降11%，销售额则下跌12%，二手房销量料回升8%至10%。展望未来，大摩认为中央政治局史无前例地改变稳定房地产市场的基调，加上表明对货币和财政政策采取更积极的立场，相信监管机构明年将推出以财政支持为基础的增量宽松政策，包括购买更大规模的存量房、城中村改造、更广泛覆盖的白名单机制以及闲置土地回购措施等。
然而，大摩相信发展商继续会将重心放到交付、去杠杆化及偿还债务上，来年仍处于挣扎求存的状况，流动性风险或可减轻，当中在过去两年购置到优质土地储备的国有房企预售利润率可望在明年下半年回升。
大摩继续偏好具防守性的国有开发商，包括华润置地(01109.HK) 、华润万象(01209.HK) 、绿城(03900.HK) 、中国海外(00688.HK) 及越秀(00123.HK) ，均予“增持”评级。(gc/w)(港股报价延迟最少十五分钟。沽空资料截至 2024-12-12 16:25。)
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.