【券商聚焦】摩根大通对房屋建筑行业在2025年持谨慎态度 普降相关建筑公司目标价
金吾财讯 | 摩根大通表示，对房屋建筑行业在2025年持谨慎态度，预计需求和供应的行业背景将不太支持房价上涨。该行指，利率、就业增长和负担能力，驱动住房需求，但预计在2025年不会有显著改善。供应方面，尽管全国二手房供应仍然紧张，但在几个关键的大都市区已经恢复到更正常的水平，而新房供应已经相当充足。对于房价趋势，该行预计房价在经历了几年的强劲增长后，未来一年将呈现更为温和的趋势（即持平至仅略有上升）。另外，该行预计特朗普政府的政策可能会扰乱建筑行业的劳动力市场，因为移民占美国建筑工人的最大比例。该行预计建筑公司的每股收益（EPS）增长将放缓，净资产回报率（ROE）将在2025年收缩，主要由毛利率下降引领。该行将DHI的评级下调至“Underweight”（减持），TOL和MTH下调至“Neutral”（中性）。将CCS的评级上调至“Neutral”（中性）。重申对PHM和TMHC的“Overweight”（增持）评级。
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