Nutrien Ltd. NTR saw falling earnings in 2023 and is expected to see it again in 2024. Will this Zacks #5 (Strong Sell) turn it around in 2025?

Nutrien is a Canadian agribusiness company which is a global provider of crop inputs and services. It operates in agriculture and retail, including products such as potash, nitrogen, crop protection and seeds.

Nutrien Misses Again in the Third Quarter of 2024

On Nov 6, 2024, Nutrien reported its third quarter results and missed on the Zacks Consensus again. It reported $0.39 versus the consensus of $0.44. That’s a miss of 11.4%.

It has missed 8 out of the last 10 quarters.

Retail sales were down 6% to $3.27 billion from $3.49 billion last year.

Potash sales fell 9% to $884 million from $972 million in the third quarter of 2023. Lower net selling prices were partially offset by record sales volumes.

In Nitrogen, prices were up. Sales also rose 10% to $793 million from $723 million a year ago.

In its comments about the agriculture and retail markets, Nutrien said, “Favorable growing conditions in the US have supported expectations for record US corn and soybean yields and significant soil nutrient removal in 2024.”

“Prospective crop margins have declined compared to the historically high levels in recent years, however we believe most growers in the US Midwest remain in a healthy financial position,” Nutrien said.

“Global grain stocks remain below historical average levels, supporting export demand for North American crops and firm prices for key agriculture commodities such as rice, sugar and palm oil,” Nutrien added.

Analysts Cut Earnings Estimates on Nutrien Again

It’s been a tough 2 years in agriculture. Nutrien’s earnings fell 66.3% in 2023 and are expected to fall 20.1% in 2024.

Will there be a turnaround in 2025?

8 estimates have been cut in the last 60 days for 2025 but the Zacks Consensus is now looking for earnings growth of 3.5% to $3.68 from $3.55 expected in 2024.

Here's what it looks like on the price and consensus chart.

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Nutrien Shares Down on the Year

In a year when the S&P 500 is up nearly 30%, Nutrien is under performing. Shares are down on the year.

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

It’s cheap, however, with a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 13.6. A P/E ratio under 15 is considered a value stock.

You will get a dividend, for your patience, which is currently yielding 4.5%.

But until prices of potash and nitrogen turn around, earnings will not. Investors interested in fertilizer and agribusiness companies might want to wait on the sidelines until prices turn.

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