金吾财讯 | 中金公司表示，水泥供给端积极变化或将带动价格明显改善。11月全国水泥产量1.69亿吨，同比下跌10.7%，环比下跌3.2%，主要受北方天气转冷等因素影响；1-11月全国水泥产量累计下滑10.1%。该行认为化债政策有望对2025年水泥需求预期形成有力支撑。此外，行业也在期待更多的供给端改革政策，如碳交易、产能补充置换等，这些政策中长期有望带来供给侧深远变化。在供需端双重积极政策预期推动下，行业的努力自救成效显著，2025年该行预期价格中枢相对于24年将继续有明显改善。该行建议关注海螺水泥(00914)、华新水泥(06655)、上峰水泥、华润建材科技(01313)、冀东水泥。
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