Statistics Canada Tuesday released its latest quarterly population estimates, as of Oct. 1, noted National Bank of Canada.

Indeed, the visual representation of population growth might just be one of the most important charts in Canada these days. After all, it seems the outsized population growth has affected almost every aspect of Canada's social/economic/financial/political
fabric, said the bank.

Tuesday's data, for starters, shows that Canada's population --now estimated at 41.5 million -- is continuing to grow. As of
Oct. 1, an additional 950,000 were calling Canada home than was
the case a year earlier.

That 12-month growth, at 2.3%, still looks pretty brisk by international standards, stated National Bank. For instance, Canada's most natural yardstick, the United States, has population growth closer to 0.5% year-on-year.

Vitally, however, the bank finds some evidence that efforts to put
Canadian population growth on a more sustainable and absorbable
path is bearing fruit. Witness the more controlled quarter-over-quarter change in the national headcount.

In absolute terms, the population increased by 177,000 in the last
quarter, a noted comedown versus the peak level of 430,000 registered little more than a year ago. In percentage terms, the latest quarterly gain of 1.7% annualized was the slowest since spring 2022.

To absolutely no surprise, the catalyst for this moderation in population growth is the non-permanent resident (NPR) category. It was this NPR category that accounted for disproportionate population gains in recent years and thus the most obvious area to focus containment efforts. Net NPR immigration was still technically positive in the latest quarter, but likely not for much longer.

The bank's seasonal adjustment of the non-seasonally adjusted (NSA) data suggests the nationwide total for NPRs turned net negative last quarter. Provincially, Ontario NPRs are already negative on a NSA basis. StatsCan data shows permanent -- non-NPR -- immigration continuing apace. At least for now.

However, Canada has been so far out-of-balance demographically speaking, that the government now concede that permanent immigration needs to cool too.

To be sure, there remains plenty of uncertainty attached to population projections, making these quarterly estimates of great significance going forward, added National Bank. This data will color expectations on jobs, growth and monetary policy neutrality, among other things.

Canada's population boom the country went through in recent years temporarily and in the end artificially arrested the aging process, with the nation's median age having fallen in each of the
past three years, added the bank. That's no small consideration for provincial governments bearing primary constitutional responsibility for health care.

While slower -- perhaps even outright negative -- population growth may allow housing supply to catch up to underlying demand, it could lay bare some of the fundamental economic and fiscal challenges the country faces. Some Canadians may think of this as a necessary demographic detox, noted National Bank.

Not all regions are apt to feel this equally. Indeed, when it comes to the latest population tallies, Alberta's outperforming regional economy is pulling in net interprovincial in-migration from other
parts of the country.