金吾财讯 | 华福证券发研指，绿城中国(03900)2023年实现营收1314亿元，同比增长3.3%；扣除优先股股利的归母净利润30.9亿元，同比增长19.6%。该行指出，公司控股子公司绿城管理控股为中国代建行业第一股，凭借先发优势与良好口碑，连续八年市占率超过20%，行业中稳居龙头。2023年绿城管理的营业收入和归母净利润分别为33亿元、9.7亿元，增速分别为24.3%、30.8%，销售净利率29.7%。绿城管理代建业务中商业代建占比提升，可售货值储备充足，为公司利润增长提供动力。该行表示，预计公司2024-2026年主营业务收入为1352/1395/1420亿元，归母净利润为27.72/31.22/36.62亿元，对应PE为7.9/7.0/6.0。由于绿城中国背靠央企股东，老牌房企口碑优质；聚焦核心城市，优质土储充足；自投业务高周转高去化，销售排名逆势提升；代建业务稳居龙头，可售货值储备充足；债务结构合理健康，融资成本持续降低，预计在一二线核心城市宽松政策效应逐步传导的背景下，绿城中国可以占领行业修复先机，首次覆盖给予“买入”评级。
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