高盛:香港商业房地产平均资本化率上升至5.7% 维持长实(01113)、新鸿基地产(00016)“买入”评级

智通财经网
20 Dec 2024

高盛发表报告指,维持长实(01113)以及新鸿基地产(00016)“买入”评级,目标价92港元及41港元。此外,维持恒基地产(00012)“沽售”评级,目标价19.5港元。

报告指,年初至今香港零售和办公楼租金指数分别下降4%和5%,截至10月底价格指数呈现双位数下降。根据高盛的估计,顺着这一趋势,目前香港零售、办公楼资本化率(cap rates)与2023年相比,上升约0.4个、0.8个百分点,分别达到6.7%、4.7%。这导致香港商业房地产(CRE)平均资本化率上升0.6个百分点至5.7%,较发展商平均按揭利率封顶息4.7%高出1个百分点。

在香港发展商中,恒基地产对于香港商业地产的资本化率预测中表现得更为激进,而长实和新鸿基地产则更加保守。倘若以目前业界估计的5.7%作为覆盖上限率的基准,投资物业组合价值在增4%至降24%之间变动,而行业平均影响为降13%。

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