金吾财讯 | 中信证券表示，12月政治局会议提振消费方向明确，考虑到中国消费者对于高端商品/服务消费的核心动能更多来自于财富效应，因此在房地产后续逐渐实现止跌回稳的基础假设之上，该行预计一线城市居民消费增速将率先反弹。横向比较来看，该行看好澳门在回归25周年之际，博彩作为“顺周期+高端消费”品种，或将成为内需修复的先行指标。行业层面来看，2024年1—11月累计GGR数据恢复至2019年同期的77%，已超出全年预期。同时受益于收入结构的变化和成本控制，当前各博彩运营商盈利端恢复良好，行业24Q3经调整EBITDA已恢复至2019年同期的84%。展望后续，该行认为春节旺季降至，行业竞争将继续保持高位，但整体趋于稳定。在内需政策的全方位刺激下，澳门博彩板块景气度有望进一步提升。估值层面来看，在近期经济、签注、假期等多重利好政策带动股价回升后，当前澳门博彩行业整体EV/EBITDA估值上涨至9x，但仍低于行业历史平均估值中枢1-2个标准差。落脚到标的，建议短期优选盈利高兑现个股。
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