Frontdoor, Inc. FTDR has drawn investor attention, with its stock trading close to a 52-week high. Over the past five trading sessions, the stock has hovered around $59 per share, closing at $58.93 on Friday — just below its 52-week peak of $60.42 reached on Nov. 25.

The leading provider of home warranties in the United States has been making notable strides in the market. FTDR shares have gained 21.8% in the past three months, significantly outperforming the Zacks Building Products - Miscellaneous industry’s 3.3% rise and the S&P 500's growth of 8%.

Notably, the FTDR stock has outperformed some other home warranty providers like Old Republic International Corporation ORI, Fidelity National Financial, Inc. FNF and First American Financial Corporation FAF, in the past three months. During the said time frame, ORI has gained 4%, while FNF and FAF have declined 1.4% and 1.7%, respectively.

Frontdoor’s 3-Month Price Performance

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FTDR's Strategy to Drive Home Warranty Sales

Frontdoor is focused on accelerating its long-term growth by expanding brand awareness and direct-to-consumer efforts. The company’s marketing and discounting efforts are yielding positive results, with growth in the direct-to-consumer (DTC) customer count and a continued focus on expanding its home warranty customer base. In the third quarter of 2024, the DTC customer count grew from the second quarter. FTDR forecasts the 2024-end DTC customer count to be in line with the previous year.

FTDR's marketing campaign, which significantly boosted the American Home Shield (“AHS”) brand awareness from 39% in 2022 to more than 54% as of the third-quarter end, continues to contribute to the positive trajectory. As the company moves into the second phase of the AHS marketing campaign in 2025, it plans to build on this momentum through a more focused and targeted approach aimed at increasing brand consideration and driving lead growth. In addition, the company launched the new American Home Shield app in November, offering AHS members easy and convenient service at their fingertips, further enhancing customer engagement.

Frontdoor's outlook is positive despite macroeconomic challenges affecting member growth across the home warranty sector. FTDR is focused on increasing awareness and reaching millions of homeowners who could benefit from a home warranty. The company is also expanding its on-demand services, including the new HVAC program, to meet customer needs.

Improved Renewals & Retention Rates

Renewals and retention rates continue to show strong growth, reflecting the company's ongoing focus on customer satisfaction and engagement. In the third quarter, retention rates improved by 150 basis points, reaching a record high of 77.7%. The upside was driven by a shift in the channel mix, efforts to enhance customer service, and increase the use of preferred contractors and member engagement, including more members enrolling in auto-pay.

Improving Real Estate Outlook Amid Declining Mortgage Rates

The home warranty sector is facing challenges due to reduced consumer spending and pressure in the real estate market. Existing home sales continue to be sluggish. In the third quarter, the company's first-year real estate customer count declined almost 14% year over year. However, there is some positive movement, as existing home inventory has risen to 4.3 months of supply, the highest in the last four years. This suggests that the real estate market is likely to improve in 2025.

As of Dec. 12, 2024, mortgage rates have fallen for the third consecutive week, with the average 30-year rate dropping to 6.6% from 6.69% the previous week, according to Freddie Mac data. This decline comes as expectations on the Federal Reserve’s next interest rate cut remain intact. Despite ongoing affordability challenges, the combination of lower mortgage rates, steady consumer income growth and a strong stock market has spurred increased demand from homebuyers in the recent weeks. 

Acquisitions & Debt Refinancing of Frontdoor

The company is actively pursuing growth through acquisitions and refinancing efforts. It has explored M&A opportunities to enhance its market position and support long-term expansion plans.

On Dec. 5, the company launched a $1.47-billion credit facility to fund its acquisitions of 2-10 Home Buyers Warranty (announced in June) and refinance existing debt. The acquisition of 2-10 is on track to close in the fourth quarter. The new credit facility includes a mix of term loans and a revolving credit line, supporting the acquisition and future share repurchases.

FTDR’s Strong Financial Position

FTDR’s robust cash flow generation enables it to fund growth initiatives and strengthen its financial position. Net cash provided by operations was $212 million in the nine months of 2024, up from $139 million a year ago.

The company has also been committed to shareholder returns through opportunistic share repurchases, as demonstrated by the completion of its three-year, $400-million share repurchase program before it expired in early September 2024. This accomplishment is particularly notable, given that share repurchases were paused for almost a year in 2022.

From the start of 2024 through August, the company repurchased 3.2 million shares for $119 million. With the $650-million share repurchase authorization announced on July 26, the company remains dedicated to returning shareholder value.

Financial Metrics Set FTDR Apart

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Frontdoor’s return on invested capital (ROIC) has outperformed the industry average in the trailing 12 months. ROIC of FTDR was 35.75% compared with the industry average of 8.83%. The company’s impressive ROIC is a testament to its effective capital allocation, strong operational efficiency and ability to generate high returns from its investments.

Estimate Revision of FTDR Stock

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The Zacks Consensus Estimate for FTDR’s 2025 EPS has moved up 6.5% in the past 60 days. The upward revision in earnings estimates indicates analysts’ increasing confidence in the stock.

How to Play the FTDR Stock?

Frontdoor is well-positioned for continued growth and success in the home warranty sector, driven by strong customer retention, expanded brand awareness and acquisitions. The company’s ongoing efforts to improve customer engagement, solid financial position and commitment to shareholder returns support its long-term growth trajectory. With these positive factors in play, this Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) company remains a compelling investment and deserves a closer look. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

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