金吾财讯 | 交银国际表示，5家上市险企2024年1-11月合计寿险保费同比增长5.3%，增速较1-10月放缓0.2个百分点，预计主要受到预定利率下调和需求提前释放的影响。受益于新车销量增速回升，财险保费增速稳中有升。2024年1-11月，人保、平安和太保财险保费同比分别增长5.1%、6.8%和7.0%。众安11月保费增速延续7月以来的回升态势。该行指，2024年寿险行业资产端和负债端均表现强劲，预计2025年由于资产端和负债端均面临较高基数，盈利和新业务价值增长面临一定压力。短期来看，长债收益率的下行态势加剧市场对于行业利差损风险的担忧。但该行认为寿险行业在目前估值水平上仍兼具防御性和弹性，随着行业产品销售重点转向分红险，负债端成本仍有下降空间；近期中央政治局会议和中央经济工作会议提出实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，有利于推动资产端的改善态势。建议关注板块中高股息标的，维持平安(02318)、太保(02601)和中国财险(02328)的买入评级。
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