金吾财讯 | 国信证券发研指，滔搏(06110)2025 财年第三季度（2024 年 9~11 月）流水下滑幅度收窄，今年以来流水增速下滑、门店数下降主要受宏观消费需求疲弱、线下客流下滑影响，公司当前以库存健康为首要目标，预计财年底库存将有明显改善，本财年管理层维持指引、悲观预期相对充分；下一财年有望在库存健康的基础上实现良性增长，同时渠道调整也有望趋稳。此外基于公司良好的现金创收能力，为高派息奠定基础，中期派息率达99%，全年预计达到 100%。该行指，品牌端，公司主力品牌阿迪达斯今年自身表现优异，前三季度大中华区收入增长高单位数，公司连续三次上调全财年指引，预期全年收入增长 10%；耐克处于调整期，今年业绩增速相对较差，截至11 月末的FY25Q2业绩将于 12 月 19 日披露，若指引向好，将有望带动滔搏估值提升，未来随新任CEO 上任、Nike 恢复产品创新核心竞争力、新品陆续推出，FY2026 Nike 业绩有望迎来复苏，叠加中国消费刺激政策下的市场环境改善，滔搏基本面将有较好弹性。此外公司非主力品牌中，户外赛道品牌维持高景气度。该行表示，维持盈利预测，预计 2025~2027 财年净利润分别为 14.4/17.9/19.2 亿元，同比-35.1%/+24.5%/+7.6%。合理估值区间为 3.8~4.0 港元，对应 2025 财年 15~16xPE，维持“优于大市”评级。
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