Allegiant Travel Company (ALGT) has unveiled encouraging fourth-quarter 2024 guidance. ALGT now anticipates its fourth-quarter capacity (measured in available seat miles) for scheduled service to increase 1.8% on a year-over-year basis. This marks an improvement from the prior expectation of 1.5%.

Total system ASM is now projected to gain 1.9% on a year-over-year basis (prior view: up 1.5%).

Operating margin is now expected to increase in the 13-14% range, which marks an improvement over the prior forecast of 6-8% band.

Earnings per share (EPS) (airline) is anticipated to be in the $2.50-$3.00 range (prior view: $0.50-$1.50).  Fourth-quarter consolidated EPS, excluding special items, is expected to be in the range of $1.75-$2.25. This marks an improvement from the prior expectation of breakeven to $1.00 per share. The Zacks Consensus Estimate is currently pegged at 64 cents.

Drew Wells, chief commercial officer of Allegiant Travel Company, stated, "Booking trends following the election continue to outpace our initial expectations. Demand recovery to hurricane-impacted destinations has been faster than expected, with demand to most impacted regions returning to normal. Additionally, close-in holiday demand during November exceeded our expectations with TRASM performing on par with the prior year during the week of Thanksgiving. December capacity is expected to be up 17 percent year-over-year, and we are encouraged by the strength in bookings for the December holiday period, which are outpacing our initial expectations. Based on recent booking trends, we now expect fourth quarter TRASM to be down approximately 1.5 percent year-over-year on capacity growth of 1.8 percent for the quarter, versus our initial TRASM expectation of down 4.5 percent year-over-year." 

Apart from an uptick in air-travel demand, fleet additions represent another tailwind for ALGT. The company took delivery of two incremental 737-MAX aircraft in November. It anticipates ending 2024 with four MAX aircraft in service (compared with its prior expectation of one). With this, ALGT aims to expand its fleet size to 125 (prior view: 122) at 2024-end. Considering the encouraging numbers related to 737 deliveries, ALGT executed to sell its underutilized CFM engines in the fourth quarter for $15 million. Given these positive numbers, ALGT anticipates fourth-quarter CASM, excluding fuel and special charges, to decline 3.5% year over year.

The fuel cost per gallon is suggested to be $2.50. For November 2024, average fuel cost per gallon – system was estimated at $2.52.

Given this encouraging outlook, we are keenly waiting for the company’s upcoming fourth-quarter earnings release.

ALGT’s Zacks Rank & Price Performance

ALGT currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

Shares of ALGT have gained 97.1% over the past three months, significantly outperforming 3.9% growth of the Zacks Airline industry.

Three-Month Price Comparison

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Bullish Q4 View of Other Airline Companies

In addition to ALK, Southwest Airlines Co. (LUV), American Airlines (AAL) and JetBlue Airways Corporation JBLU have also provided encouraging fourth-quarter 2024 guidance backed by upbeat holiday travel demand.

LUV now anticipates its fourth-quarter revenue per available seat mile (RASM or unit revenues) to increase in the range of 5.5%-7% on a year-over-year basis. This marks an improvement from the previous forecast of growth of 3.5% to 5.5%. The upside was owing to improving industry demand trends, and the company's revenue management techniques paid off.

AAL lifted its fourth-quarter 2024 adjusted EPS guidance owing to favorable pricing and revenue environment. JBLU anticipates its fourth-quarter revenues to decline in the range of 2%-5% on a year-over-year basis. This marks an improvement from the previous guidance of a 3%-7% decline. For 2024, total revenues are forecasted to tumble in the range of 3.5-4.5% (prior view: down 4-5%).

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