招银国际发表报告指，今年中国保险业在政策呵护和低利率环境下迈入高质量转型新阶段。人身险行业出于防范利差损风险的考量，两年内监管下调寿险定价利率上限100个基点，开启此轮寿险定价利率的下行周期。
该行指，财险行业伴随新能源车保有量和渗透率的快速提升，车险保费有望进一步打开增量空间；非车险创新类产品的推出和监管持续强化风险减量管理，为行业多元化经营和高质量发展奠定基础。
投资方面，近年来受长期利率下行和存量非标资产到期影响，险企净投资收益率较快下行，市场对利差损风险的担忧成为压制险企估值回升的主要原因。该行认为完善资产负债久期匹配并建立大类资产配置体系，是险企穿越经济周期、实现稳健经营的必由之路。
该行指，当前板块估值交易于0.2至0.5倍2025财年P/EV和0.4至0.9倍2025财年P/BV，股息率为4%至7%。第四季保险板块股价震荡回调，更多反映对政策端预期的博弈。维持板块“增持”评级，推荐买入资负匹配更优、增长动能持续向好的龙头险企中国太保(02601.HK) 、中国人寿(02628.HK) 、中国平安(02318.HK) 和友邦保险(01299.HK) 。(ha/w)(港股报价延迟最少十五分钟。沽空资料截至 2024-12-17 16:25。)
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