金吾财讯 | 杰富瑞近日发布的化妆品、家居和个人护理零售更新研究显示,中国美容市场11月份的销售额同比下滑了26.4%,与10月份40.1%的增长和9月份4.5%的下降相比,化妆品销售表现落后于整体零售销售,且受到了11.11购物节提前的影响。总体来看,中国零售销售环比下降了180个基点至3.0%,未达到市场预期。杰富瑞预计,中国美容市场未来年均增长将与全球成熟市场持平,预计为中位数增长(Median Sales Growth,简称MSD)。
杰富瑞指出,11月份化妆品销售有所下降,若将10月和11月的化妆品销售数据合并考虑,整体下降幅度为2.4%。从数月的趋势来看,中国化妆品销售经历了波动,例如6月同比增长了48%,7月下降了4.1%,8月增长了9.7%,以及10月增长了40.1%。此外,杰富瑞行业追踪数据显示,11月份行业销售量预计大幅下降33%,而在10月份则增长了57%,这主要是由于双十一预售开始日期的提前。但10月和11月的整体净结果为下降1%(皮肤护理下降3%,化妆品增长4%),远低于市场对双十一增长22%的预期(皮肤护理)。
杰富瑞维持雅诗兰黛(EL)“持有”评级,目标价为80.04美元。
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