【甲醇市场震荡偏强，基差上行，伊朗危机影响供应】金十期货12月24日讯，从基本面来看，月底浙江兴兴兑现停车，对甲醇需求量下降15万吨/月，伊朗的3套装置预计本周也开始相继兑现停车，月均进口量将大幅下滑，按照目前伊朗装置的开工测算，伊朗月均产量是22万吨附近，75%以上进口来中国的话，也刚刚弥补了兴兴的停车量。但是兴兴的停车检修是一个月左右，目前伊朗的天然气危机严重，装置开车的时间不确定，所以近月基差大幅上行。加之目前中印的CFR价差历史最低，在-44.5左右。印度和我国是伊朗甲醇主要的进口国，在这种价格表现下，伊朗甲醇去印度更具有性价比，所以后续港口的甲醇会愈加偏紧，震荡偏强的走势短期或将延续。
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