The mREIT industry gained momentum in early 2024, driven by optimism surrounding the Federal Reserve rate cuts. Per the Freddie Mac report, the average rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was 6.62% at the beginning of 2024, while it hovered around 7% for most of 2023.

As we approach the end of 2024, the average rate on the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rates is 6.72% for the week ending Dec. 19, 2024. The mortgage rates continue to be elevated as the central bank hinted fewer rate cuts in 2025. This will likely keep hurting the refinancing volume.

The mREIT industry has widely underperformed the S&P 500 Index and the Finance sector so far this year. The stocks in this industry have collectively lost 4.5%, while the Zacks S&P 500 composite and Finance sector have rallied 27.1% and 19.9%, respectively.

Price Performance

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Though mortgage rates are volatile, home buyers have remained active in the purchase market, backed by gradually improving inventory conditions and a more positive outlook on the economy and job market. With this, investors can bet on mREIT stocks like NexPoint Real Estate Finance Inc. NREF, ARMOUR Residential, Inc. ARR and REDWOOD TRUST, Inc. RWT, which are well-poised to navigate industry chaos and generate solid returns.

Road Ahead for mREIT Stocks

The U.S. economy is expected to continue its growth in 2025, although at a slightly slower pace than in 2024. This, along with interest rate cuts, will gradually lower mortgage rates. 

Given the increasing supply and relatively high mortgage rates, house price appreciation may remain moderate. This, along with increased home sales, should strengthen the purchase originations by 2025. Refinance volumes are also likely to rise due to falling mortgage rates. 

Over the past year, volatility in the fixed-income markets, high interest rates, and the widening of the spread between the 30-year Agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) and 10-year treasury rates have affected the valuations of mREITs. Agency mortgage REITs are witnessing slight decreases in tangible book value as spreads on benchmark indices have widened, however the same has been more stable than the volatility in 2023. As the central bank plans to lower interest rates also in 2025, it will ease earnings pressure for highly leveraged mREITs to some extent as funding costs stabilize.

With a gradual decrease in mortgage rates, improving purchase originations and refinancing activities, mREIT industry players will likely witness book value improvement in 2025 as spreads in the Agency market tighten, driving asset prices.

3 mREIT Stocks Worth Betting On

Investors can consider the above-mentioned mREIT stocks with lucrative dividend yields and strong growth projections to generate healthy returns in 2025.

To choose these mREIT stocks, we ran the Zacks Stocks Screener to identify stocks with an expected 2025 earnings growth rate of more than 5% and a dividend yield of above 10%. Also, these stocks currently sport a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) or 2 (Buy).

NexPoint Real Estate Finance: The company based in Dallas, TX, originates, structures and invests in first mortgage loans, mezzanine loans, preferred equity and alternative structured financings in commercial real estate properties, as well as multifamily commercial mortgage-backed securities.

The company’s net interest income (NII) declined 55.5% year over year to $16.8 million in 2023. A similar trend persisted in the first nine months of 2024, as NII plunged 50.3% to $6.4 million from the prior-year period. As of Sept. 30, 2024, its book value per share decreased to $16.90 from $17.84 as of Sept. 30, 2023.

NREF’s current dividend yield is 15.3%. It has increased its dividend four times in the last five years and has a payout ratio of 161%. 

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the company’s earnings for 2024 and 2025 is pegged at $1.72 and $2.44 per share, respectively. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2024 earnings implies a 7% year-over-year decline. The consensus estimate for 2025 earnings indicates 41.6% year-over-year growth.

NREF shares have gained 13.9% year to date. It currently flaunts a Zacks Rank #1. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Price Performance

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ARMOUR Residential: The company invests primarily in Agency residential MBS. ARR’s securities portfolio is backed by fixed-rate, hybrid-adjustable-rate and adjustable-rate home loans, as well as unsecured notes and bonds issued by the GSE and the United States treasuries, and money market instruments.

In 2023, ARR’s NII declined 74% year over year to $27.1 million. While the same downtrend persisted in the first nine months of 2024 (NII fell 33.8% to $14.1 million from the year-ago period), the pace of decline is gradually slowing down. As of the third-quarter 2024 end, its book value per share decreased to $20.76 from $21.73 at the end of Sept. 30, 2023.

ARR’s current dividend yield is 15.28%. The company increased its dividend once in the last five years and has a payout ratio of 73%.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for ARR’s earnings for 2024 and 2025 is pegged at $3.91 and $4.11 per share, respectively. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2024 earnings implies a 15.9% year-over-year decline. The consensus estimate for 2025 earnings indicates 5.3% year-over-year growth.

ARR shares have gained 12% so far this year. The company currently has a Zacks Rank #2. 

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REDWOOD TRUST: This is a self-advised and self-managed real estate investment trust. RWT specializes in acquiring and managing real estate mortgage assets, which may be acquired as whole loans or as mortgage securities representing interest in or obligations, backed by pools of mortgage loans.

In 2023, NII declined 41% year over year to $20.3 million. However, for the first nine months of 2024, the trend reversed and NII rose 2.9% to $75 million. As of Sept. 30, 2024, its book value per share decreased to $8.74 from $8.77 a year ago.

RWT's current dividend yield is 10.04%. It has increased its dividend eight times in the last five years and has a payout ratio of 155%. 

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the company’s earnings for 2024 and 2025 is pegged at 57 cents and 81 cents per share, respectively. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2024 earnings implies a 147.8% year-over-year surge. The consensus estimate for 2025 earnings indicates 40.6% year-over-year growth.

RWT shares have declined 5.3% so far this year. The company currently has a Zacks Rank #2.

Price Performance

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