By buying an index fund, you can roughly match the market return with ease. But many of us dare to dream of bigger returns, and build a portfolio ourselves. For example, the Corpay, Inc. (NYSE:CPAY) share price is up 54% in the last three years, clearly besting the market return of around 18% (not including dividends). However, more recent returns haven't been as impressive as that, with the stock returning just 24% in the last year.
In light of the stock dropping 3.7% in the past week, we want to investigate the longer term story, and see if fundamentals have been the driver of the company's positive three-year return.
See our latest analysis for Corpay
To paraphrase Benjamin Graham: Over the short term the market is a voting machine, but over the long term it's a weighing machine. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.
Corpay was able to grow its EPS at 14% per year over three years, sending the share price higher. We note that the 15% yearly (average) share price gain isn't too far from the EPS growth rate. Coincidence? Probably not. This observation indicates that the market's attitude to the business hasn't changed all that much. Rather, the share price has approximately tracked EPS growth.
You can see how EPS has changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).
It's probably worth noting that the CEO is paid less than the median at similar sized companies. But while CEO remuneration is always worth checking, the really important question is whether the company can grow earnings going forward. This free interactive report on Corpay's earnings, revenue and cash flow is a great place to start, if you want to investigate the stock further.
Corpay's TSR for the year was broadly in line with the market average, at 24%. Most would be happy with a gain, and it helps that the year's return is actually better than the average return over five years, which was 4%. Even if the share price growth slows down from here, there's a good chance that this is business worth watching in the long term. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Consider risks, for instance. Every company has them, and we've spotted 2 warning signs for Corpay you should know about.
If you would prefer to check out another company -- one with potentially superior financials -- then do not miss this free list of companies that have proven they can grow earnings.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.
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