金吾财讯 | 天风证券发研报指，该行认为25年受益于基建实物工作量的推进以及地产新建端的筑底，水泥需求降幅有望收窄，而供给侧将逐渐发力，短期来看，错峰生产仍是调节供需平衡最有效的手段，25年随着限制超产政策的逐步趋严，倒闭企业通过补足超产指标等方式退出中小产能，行业有望开始实现真正意义上的产能出清，而2027年开始将进入碳交易深化完善阶段，行业产能优化效果有望进一步显现。该行表示，10月份华东长三角地区开始大幅提价，并逐渐传到至华中、华南等地，四季度利润有望开始走出底部，同时也为25年开年价格奠定良好基础，在供给端政策驱动及企业利润诉求增长下自我约束力加强的双重推动下，该行继续看好25年国内水泥企业利润向上弹性，推荐海螺水泥(00914)、华新水泥(06655)、上峰水泥、华润建材科技(01313)，成长性方向，推荐非洲出海龙头西部水泥(02233)。
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