【钢材：需求显韧性VS成本支撑弱，盘面上下空间或有限】金十期货12月23日讯，1. 宏观：宏观预期扰动兑现，从风险溢价来看，市场预期或仍有反复。2. 供需：供需双降，库存延续去化，总库存整体处于近六年同期偏低水平（由于绝对需求下滑，库销比整体处于中性水平），供需矛盾不大。3. 成本：原料高库存压制，成本支撑力度偏弱。煤矿出库不畅，炼焦煤总库存延续累积，流拍比较高，现货价格尚未止降；钢厂铁矿库存续增，但高库存压制下价格逆增转降，补库力度或低于预期。4. 总结：成本支撑偏弱，但建材需求尚有韧性，螺纹估值中性略低下，短期螺纹钢05合约上下空间或有限，静待产业矛盾的进一步发酵。
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