金吾财讯 | 海通国际发研报指，滔搏(06110)FY25Q3公司零售及批发业务之总销售金额同比录得中单位数下跌，FY25Q2为10-20%低段下跌，去年同期为10-20%低段增长。FY25Q3公司销售环比Q2有所改善，该行预计主要源于：1)受假期及线上大促提前影响，线上渠道促销氛围浓厚，公司紧抓线上销售窗口期加大投入，线上渠道收入增长较快提振整体表现；2)为优化库存水平，折扣同比继续有所加深。该行表示，FY25H1末，公司存货61.2亿元，同比增长6.4%，存货周转天数148天/4.9个月，同比上升7天。上半年销售疲软，存货水位同比有所上升。公司提前预判并采取措施应对，包括加深折扣优化库存，FY25H1毛利率41.1%，同比下降3.6%。FY25Q3来看，销售整体符合此前计划，该行预计FY25末(25年2月)库存能够回归相对健康水平。展望FY26，在库存健康基础上公司有望轻装上阵、利润率有望改善，叠加政策利好消费、费用正杠杆等预计将实现较大的业绩弹性。该行续指，公司夯实主力品牌运营，加快对细分景气赛道的布局。深入推进全域零售，优化经营效率，始终以充沛的现金流入与高且稳定的派息率持续回报股东。该行预计FY2025-FY2027公司归母净利润分别为13.25/18.00/21.52亿元，给予FY2026PE12倍，按照1港元=0.92元人民币换算，对应目标价3.79港元/股，首次覆盖给予“优于大市”评级。
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