金吾财讯 | 内房股走弱，截至发稿，远洋集团(03377)跌3.77%，融信中国(03301)跌3.75%，龙湖集团(00960)跌2.89%，中国海外发展(00688)跌2.24%，华润置地(01109)跌1.96%。消息面上，中指研究院发文称，2025年新房销售恢复仍面临一些挑战，如：居民收入预期尚未根本性扭转、有效供给不足、二手房市场对新房“替代效应”等。中性情形下，预计2025年全国商品房销售面积同比下降6.3%，乐观情形下，若货币化安置100万套城中村改造、收储存量房等政策加快落实，2025年全国商品房销售面积或可实现止跌。同时宏观经济运行企稳、居民就业和收入改善也是房地产止跌回稳的必要条件。投资开工方面，受土地缩量、房企资金承压、市场库存规模高等因素制约，中性情形下，预计2025年新开工面积同比下降15.6%，房地产开发投资额同比下降8.7%。2025年促进投资开工“止跌回稳”的关键是盘活闲置存量土地，增加市场有效供应，推动市场进入新的循环。
招银国际日前表示，虽然销售端展现初步恢复，但行业库存仍在历史高位，且部分关键政策落地仍需时日，故该行认为行业基本面见底信号并未显现。
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