金吾财讯 | 华泰证券发研指，东岳集团(00189)主营业务为制冷剂/含氟高分子/有机硅，其中制冷剂业务在供需共振下有望中长期支撑公司盈利中枢，含氟高分子和有机硅行业的扩产周期已接近尾声，价格筑底回稳，终端需求复苏下有望带动行业景气度上行，公司投资价值突出。该行指，市场担忧公司原控股股东的财务问题将持续影响公司经营战略，以及公司产能规模较大的二代制冷剂或提前面临淘汰。该行认为24年3月公司已完成与原控股股东的脱钩，原股东影响已降至较低。公司产能规模较大的二代制冷剂R22在存量维修市场规模仍较大，但生产配额削减速度较快，25年供给收缩支撑景气向上。且公司的R22/R142b产能大部分用于含氟高分子原料，国内需求量较大，或将中长期支撑非制冷领域用途的价格。该行表示，预计公司24-26年净利润为9.79/15.89/20.88亿元，同比增速+38%/+62%/+31%，对应EPS为0.56/0.92/1.20元/股。参考可比公司25年Wind一致预期平均16xPE，考虑到公司制冷剂业务占比较小，且港股较A股存在折价因素，给予东岳集团25年10xPE，目标价HKD9.89（按港币:人民币=0.93计），首次覆盖给予“买入”评级。
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