The crypto market is experiencing a significant shift as fresh capital is diverting from Bitcoin following its recent crash, leaving investors uncertain of the future. Concurrently, macroeconomic turbulence, particularly fears of a potential debt crisis in the U.S., is increasing apprehension of a repeat of the 2022 Bitcoin cycle.
In the midst of this uncertainty, Ethereum is gaining serious traction, with its strong historical performance attracting numerous investors. As the first quarter approaches with the market in flux, investors are left to consider whether Bitcoin or Ethereum will provide the strongest returns.
Historically, the first quarter has often been strong for crypto. While Bitcoin typically grabs the headlines, Ethereum has consistently outperformed with stronger price gains. Mid-January usually sees a series of green candlesticks for the ETH/BTC pair, often indicating a surge in capital inflows by February. This year, Ethereum soared by 85%, reaching $4,087 by mid-March.
Moreover, mid-January is a critical period for governments as they finalize their annual budgets. This year, with the new administration planning to tackle a massive $7 trillion debt and cut spending, the pressure is on. The government’s approach to addressing its debt could create even bigger financial challenges down the line.
However, Bitcoin’s recent drop from its all-time high of $108K to $92K signals a tough market environment, with investors remaining cautious. Furthermore, Bitcoin’s long-term holder (LTH) control has dipped to 62.31%, while Ethereum’s LTH stands strong at 75.06%.
Bitcoin’s LTH percentage has been decreasing since March, when BTC hit $73K, continuing to fall even after new all-time highs. In contrast, Ethereum has been on a steady uptrend, with its LTH control growing in tandem with its rally to $4K. This indicates that Ethereum’s long-term holders are confident and committed.
Retail investors often use LTH metrics as a sign of market confidence, making Ethereum’s growing LTH base a strong indicator of stability. Given Ethereum’s solid historical performance in January and its strengthening long-term holder support, it seems poised to take the lead, potentially leaving Bitcoin behind.
However, the true catalyst is still to come. Investors should stay alert during this high-stakes month as it could set the stage for a year of big moves and even bigger opportunities for their portfolio.
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