金吾财讯 | 东方证券发布研报指，阿里巴巴(09988)持续优化营商环境，商家侧松绑仅退款+上线退货宝，有效降低商家经营成本；用户侧加大投入，提升用户体验，更重视用户+服务。主业淘天分额逐渐企稳商业化进程稳步推进，副业边际向好持续减亏，整体公司盈利能力持续优化，回购规模领先股东回报丰厚。
该行指，公司2025财年二季度GMV和订单量保持双位数增速，AOV下降部分抵消GMV增长。TR止跌企稳。9月淘天闲鱼加收0.6%软件服务费叠加全站推广渗透率提升，后续TR仍有提升空间。FY25全年GMV有望稳健增长，看好淘天分额将逐渐稳定，后续关注全站推广与0.6%软件服务费带来的变现能力提升。
该行预测，公司FY2025-2027营业收入为10036/10916/11831亿元（原FY2025-2027预测为10165/10933/11882亿元），经调整净利润为1512/1715/1919亿元（原FY2025-2027预测为1527/1731/1966亿元）。分部估值计算公司市值为20738亿元，对应每股价值117.52港元（人民币兑港币汇率1.080），维持“买入”评级。
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.