金吾财讯 | 国元国际发研指，新奥能源(02688)前三季度零售气量增长4.8%达到188.19亿方，全年气量增长维持增长5%指引。截至9月底，公司累计已投运规模泛能项目达347个，泛能业务销售量同比增加21.4%至296.68亿千瓦时，在建装机的规模超过830MW，四季度陆续进入运营状态，新投产项目也将带来增量贡献。另外，托管项目创造的工程量在四季度会有增量，Q4销售量将环比上升，预计公司全年泛能业务销售量和毛利增长区间20-30%。该行指，公司宣布将动用不超过3亿港元指示受托人继续于公开市场购买股份，目前用于股权激励的股票池已经足够，后续股份回购将注销，有利直接提升公司每股收益；2024年资本开支45-46亿元水平，较年初计划全年80亿元明显下降，主要基于公司采取相对谨慎的投资策略。预期2024年底在手现金将明显提升，除了优先用于还债外，也有望增加回购和分红，整体判断公司未来派息率将稳定提升，2024年股息率约5.6%具吸引。该行更新公司目标价71.5港元，相当于2024年和2025年11倍和10倍PE，目标价较现价有27%上升空间，给予买入评级。
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