【甲醇：短期双重利多叠加 后续有望“金蛇狂舞”？】金十期货12月30日讯，国际方面，上周一纽约时报的伊朗能源危机文章直接引爆国内情绪，主流预期提升至伊朗可能3月都无法回归，盘面月间包括港口纸货基差大幅走强。外盘供应跌至低位，北美、委内重启缓慢、马油老装置意外停车，印尼检修提前。伊朗季节性停车早于往年，busher停车，开工仅剩3套，伊朗已发55.2万吨，全月预计55-60万吨。1. 国内方面，西南气头装置将陆续停车，国内甲醇开工率或季节性下降，蒙古宝丰、山东鲁西烯烃装置陆续重启，MTO开工率回升至高位，需求较好，港口库存下跌，去库预期逐步兑现，甲醇供需面偏好。2. 中辉期货分析师吴明近认为，策略上，甲醇基本面尚可的情况下，短期大概率维持震荡偏强走势。上周五上游煤炭板块双焦积极反弹，进一步的提振甲醇。甲醇主力2505合约在10月21后以后，两个月内沿着日线图20日线一路震荡上行，后续在2600大关强支撑之上维持积极低多为主思路，轻仓顺势跟进为辅，上方关注2700区域压力作用，有效上破也就打开了主升通道。
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