港股异动 | 内银股集体走低 国债利率再创新低 机构预计银行资产端收益仍将承压

智通财经
02 Jan

智通财经APP获悉,内银股集体走低,截至发稿,工商银行(01398)跌3.26%,报4.89港元;建设银行(00939)跌2.82%,报6.09港元;交通银行(03328)跌2.66%,报6.22港元;中国银河(03988)跌1.26%,报3.92港元。

消息面上,今日银行间主要利率债收益率持续下行。国债期货午盘集体上涨,30年期主力合约涨0.79%,10年期主力合约涨0.22%,均创历史新高。中金指出,当前国债利率对降息预期计入已较充分,未来市场利率走势短期关注货币政策宽松节奏、公募基金止盈、政府债发行前置的可能影响,之后关注财政提振物价回升的效力。

国联证券指出,考虑2024年LPR多次下调,上市银行2025年资产端收益预计仍将承压。根据我们的测算,重定价将导致上市银行2025年贷款收益率下行22BP左右,将拉低上市银行净息差17BP左右。负债端,2023年以来长期限定期存款挂牌利率下调幅度超100BP,根据我们的测算,仅3年期定期存款到期便能拉低上市银行存款成本约10BP,有望提振上市银行2025年净息差7BP左右,因此负债成本改善将成为息差表现差异的核心。此外,同业负债成本管控已落地,银行后续息差降幅有望收窄。

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