Ahead of employment data for December due out next Friday, Avery Shenfeld said slowing immigration will start to mean the employment gain needed to sustain a given unemployment rate will also be easing off. That, he added, might prevent a further uptick in the jobless rate in Friday's labour force data, while still leaving a lot of economic slack in place. According to him, that will still provide ample reason for the Bank of Canada to continue to nudge rates lower, although with the overnight target "no longer so lofty", moving in quarter point increments will now be appropriate.
Meanwhile, Shenfeld also said, issues at Canadian ports could hit imports more than exports, allowing the trade deficit for November to narrow in next Tuesday's readings.
Shenfeld said CIBC is watching out for a statement from Prime Minister Trudeau, who has been mulling over his future as party leader while off on vacation, and facing increasing pressure from his own caucus to step aside.
(Also on the CIBC calendar for release next week the December Ivey PMI is slated for release on Tuesday; and November Building Permits is due Friday.)
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