金吾财讯 | 华泰证券发研报指，港铁公司(00066)为“铁路+物业”模式典范，公司盈利可被视为香港零售和楼市活力的晴雨表。经常性利润来自铁路客运、免税店及车站小商店租赁、商场租赁等现金流稳健的“收租”业务，近10年盈利贡献约占45%。非经常性利润来自新建铁路沿线的房地产开发、投资物业的公允价值重估，盈利贡献约占55%。该行认为，消费模式转变及入境旅游增长、按揭利率下降或为重要催化剂。该行指，香港经济前景不明朗及较高的利率抑制消费意愿，市场担心商场租金持续下跌、住宅销售难反转。该行认为，当前股价已充分反映基本面担忧，当前股价已较2019年7月的历史高点下滑五成。更为关键的是，边际回暖信号已经显现，2025EPE与PB估值低于2011年以来的25%分位数。该行首次覆盖，给予“增持”评级。预测公司2024/2025/2026年归母净利为128亿/225亿/237亿港元，分别同比变化+64%/+76%/+5%。该行基于分部估值法，给出公司目标价为29.7港元。其中，香港车务运营、车站商务基于DCF估值（WACC8.1%与永续增长率3%），投资物业基于资本化率估值（商铺5.5%），物业发展基于NAV测算；上述分部加总折让20%，以反映对多元化业务的估值折让。
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