【氧化铝大幅下挫，短期或将延续弱势格局？】金十期货特约光大期货点评：2025年开年以来，氧化铝价格连续两日走弱，周五跌幅进一步扩大，主力合约日度跌幅近7%。1. 宏观层面来看，根据近两日海内外的PMI数据，欧元区12月PMI45.1，低于预期走弱，国内12月财新和官方制造业PMI较前两个月有所转弱，标普全球PMI49.4，好于预期但维持收缩区间。全球主要几个经济体的需求偏弱，市场情绪再度转向悲观，顺周期资产大跌，氧化铝价格同步承压。2. 基本面方面，海外氧化铝复产、国内新增产能投放，以及下游亏损减产，氧化铝供给紧张格局开始好转，延续回调节奏，现货跌势或开始加速。在年末下游集中补库风潮下，铝锭并未出现明显累库周期，25年长单谈判开启，年内铝厂清货进入尾声，下游补库结束、开始着手准备放假，对氧化铝存在负反馈。预计短期市场继续交易供增需减的弱预期，氧化铝或延续弱势格局。
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