Commercial Metals Company CMC is scheduled to report first-quarter fiscal 2025 results on Jan. 6, before the opening bell. 

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CMC’s fiscal first-quarter revenues is pegged at $1.89 billion, indicating a 5.5% dip from the year-ago reported figure.

The consensus estimate for earnings is pegged at 78 cents per share. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CMC’s fiscal first-quarter earnings has moved down 25% in the past 60 days. The estimate indicates a year-over-year fall of 52.2%.

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Find the latest EPS estimates and surprises on Zacks Earnings Calendar.

CMC’s Solid Earnings Surprise History

Commercial Metals’ earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimates in three of the trailing four quarters and missed in one, the average earnings surprise being 10.2%.

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What the Zacks Model Unveils for Commercial Metals

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Commercial Metals this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat. However, that is not the case here.

You can uncover the best stocks before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Earnings ESP: The Earnings ESP for CMC is +8.97%. 

Zacks Rank: Commercial Metals currently carries a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell).

Factors Likely to Have Shaped CMC’s Q1 Performance

In Europe, sluggish demand has pressured pricing and margins in fiscal 2024. Sentiment and activity levels in the company's construction and industrial end markets have been impacted by general economic uncertainties. In response to market imbalances, the Polish long steel industry has significantly reduced production and inventory levels. Conditions in Europe are expected to have been challenging in the to-be-reported quarter, weighing on the company's performance.

Commercial Metals anticipates a drop in consolidated financial performance in the first quarter of fiscal 2025 from the fourth quarter. Earnings for the Emerging Businesses Group are expected to fall due to typical seasonality and the effects of economic uncertainties in the United States and Europe.

However, the impacts of the robust demand in North America for each of Commercial Metals’ major product lines is expected to have boosted the company’s results in the fiscal first quarter. 

Commercial Metals has also been implementing price rises across its mill products in response to rapidly rising scrap costs, which will sustain margins. The company anticipates a sequential improvement in Europe Steel Group's adjusted EBITDA in the first quarter of fiscal 2025.

Commercial Metals’ Segmental Q1 Expectations

Our model expects the North America Steel Group segment to generate $1.53 billion in revenues in the fiscal first quarter, indicating a year-over-year dip of 5.1%. The estimate for the segment’s adjusted EBITDA is pegged at $181 million.

The estimate for the Europe Steel Group segment’s revenues is pegged at $201 million, indicating a 10.9% year-over-year decline. Our model expects the segment’s adjusted EBITDA to be a negative $0.1 million.

Our model anticipates the Emerging Businesses Group segment to generate $197 million in revenues in the fiscal first quarter, indicating a year-over-year rise of 8.3%. The estimate for the segment’s adjusted EBITDA is pegged at $34 million.

CMC Stock’s Price Performance

Commercial Metals’ shares have lost 0.4% in the past year compared with the industry’s 30.5% fall.

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Stocks Worth a Look

Here are some stocks with the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat in their upcoming releases.

CF Industries Holdings, Inc. CF, expected to release its fourth-quarter 2024 results soon, has an Earnings ESP of +8.17% and a Zacks Rank of 2 at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CF’s earnings is pegged at $1.61 per share, which indicates year-over-year growth of 8.1%. It has a trailing four-quarter average surprise of 10.3%.

ArcelorMittal S.A. MT, expected to release its fourth-quarter 2024 results soon, has an Earnings ESP of +3.23% and a Zacks Rank of 3 at present. 

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for MT’s earnings is pegged at 62 cents per share. It has a trailing four-quarter average surprise of 36.4%.

Hudbay Minerals Inc. HBM, expected to release its fourth-quarter 2024 results soon, has an Earnings ESP of +49.59% and a Zacks Rank of 3 at present. 

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for HBM’s earnings is pegged at 26 cents per share. It has a trailing four-quarter average surprise of 143.8%.

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