Declining Stock and Solid Fundamentals: Is The Market Wrong About Waste Connections, Inc. (NYSE:WCN)?

Simply Wall St.
04 Jan

With its stock down 11% over the past month, it is easy to disregard Waste Connections (NYSE:WCN). But if you pay close attention, you might gather that its strong financials could mean that the stock could potentially see an increase in value in the long-term, given how markets usually reward companies with good financial health. Specifically, we decided to study Waste Connections' ROE in this article.

ROE or return on equity is a useful tool to assess how effectively a company can generate returns on the investment it received from its shareholders. Simply put, it is used to assess the profitability of a company in relation to its equity capital.

View our latest analysis for Waste Connections

How To Calculate Return On Equity?

ROE can be calculated by using the formula:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Waste Connections is:

11% = US$939m ÷ US$8.3b (Based on the trailing twelve months to September 2024).

The 'return' is the profit over the last twelve months. So, this means that for every $1 of its shareholder's investments, the company generates a profit of $0.11.

Why Is ROE Important For Earnings Growth?

Thus far, we have learned that ROE measures how efficiently a company is generating its profits. Based on how much of its profits the company chooses to reinvest or "retain", we are then able to evaluate a company's future ability to generate profits. Generally speaking, other things being equal, firms with a high return on equity and profit retention, have a higher growth rate than firms that don’t share these attributes.

A Side By Side comparison of Waste Connections' Earnings Growth And 11% ROE

To start with, Waste Connections' ROE looks acceptable. Even when compared to the industry average of 12% the company's ROE looks quite decent. Consequently, this likely laid the ground for the decent growth of 19% seen over the past five years by Waste Connections.

We then compared Waste Connections' net income growth with the industry and we're pleased to see that the company's growth figure is higher when compared with the industry which has a growth rate of 11% in the same 5-year period.

NYSE:WCN Past Earnings Growth January 4th 2025

Earnings growth is an important metric to consider when valuing a stock. What investors need to determine next is if the expected earnings growth, or the lack of it, is already built into the share price. By doing so, they will have an idea if the stock is headed into clear blue waters or if swampy waters await. Has the market priced in the future outlook for WCN? You can find out in our latest intrinsic value infographic research report.

Is Waste Connections Efficiently Re-investing Its Profits?

With a three-year median payout ratio of 33% (implying that the company retains 67% of its profits), it seems that Waste Connections is reinvesting efficiently in a way that it sees respectable amount growth in its earnings and pays a dividend that's well covered.

Moreover, Waste Connections is determined to keep sharing its profits with shareholders which we infer from its long history of eight years of paying a dividend. Our latest analyst data shows that the future payout ratio of the company is expected to drop to 23% over the next three years. As a result, the expected drop in Waste Connections' payout ratio explains the anticipated rise in the company's future ROE to 20%, over the same period.

Conclusion

In total, we are pretty happy with Waste Connections' performance. In particular, it's great to see that the company is investing heavily into its business and along with a high rate of return, that has resulted in a sizeable growth in its earnings. With that said, the latest industry analyst forecasts reveal that the company's earnings growth is expected to slow down. Are these analysts expectations based on the broad expectations for the industry, or on the company's fundamentals? Click here to be taken to our analyst's forecasts page for the company.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

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